Data Analysis: Canadian transport and social deals peak in 2015
A record number of 23 social infrastructure and transport transactions reached financial close in Canada during 2015, according to IJGlobal data. The total value of closed deals, at $8.25 billion, was close to the record $8.72 billion total achieved in 2010. The performance was a strong upturn compared to the previous three years.
The Canadian transportation sector has seen a particular resurgence, with transport PPPs accounting for $6.23 billion of the total closed in 2015. The number of transport deals has steadily risen in Canada over the past seven years and at least another four or five such projects, above $500 million in value each, are in procurement in Canada this year already.
While Canada hosts one of the strongest social PPP procurement markets globally, it has recently increased its transport PPP pipeline – especially transit and road projects. A total of 10 transport deals closed in 2015 alone, as compared to 20 deals combined in the prior seven years. Social infrastructure deal volumes also continue to remain relatively stable, barring 2012-2013 when overall procurement was low.
Provinces across the country have been applying their social PPP expertise and experience to the transport sector. Densely populated provinces like Ontario have been strengthening their public transit and rail infrastructure to ease traffic congestion on roads.
The province is procuring the roughly C$1 billion ($719.5 million) Finch West light-rail transit (LRT) project, the tender for which launched in September 2015. It also expects to launch a similarly sized Hurontario LRT later this year. Ontario plans to invest more than $130 billion in infrastructure over the next decade, including $11.9 billion in 2015 and 2016, the province announced in 2015.
While Ontario also took the lead among provinces for closing the most number of deals (9) in 2015, Saskatchewan and Quebec, which closed four and five deals respectively, financed noteworthy transport deals such as the C$1.5 billion Regina Bypass PPP and the $1.55 billion St. Lawrence corridor bridge PPP.
A couple of high value deals are in procurement, such as the $2.4 million George Massey Tunnel in British Columbia and the $2 billion Gordie Howe International Bridge PPP. But total volumes this year are not expected to match that of 2015, a Canadian developer told IJGlobal.
The pace of new tender launches since the last quarter of 2015 into 2016 has slowed down compared to rest of last year, this is coupled with weak global macro economics and tumbling oil prices which is expected to impact the infrastructure sector overall. Developers and financiers are also on a wait and watch as they assess the newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's commitment towards broader infrastructure investment, particularly for PPPs.
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