What's missing from the UK's Autumn Statement?
The UK’s 2017 Autumn Statement, in which the Chancellor Philip Hammond responds to official economic forecasts and announces upcoming government spending policy, took place this afternoon (23 November 2016). For infrastructure this was once again a statement lacking in detail.
The Statement – and the changes it is ushering in – had to take account of a not-so-rosy set of predictions by the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). That office’s estimates suggest that post-Brexit Britain will experience overall 2.4% less economic growth over the next five years than was previously forecast in March.
The good news was that Hammond’s prescription for a tricky growth forecast is “additional high value investment in infrastructure […] raising Britain’s productivity.” What wasn’t given though, was specific projects in which to invest this capital. For an industry which has spent 2016 grumbling that the UK has a worrying lack of greenfield pipeline.
There was also a surprise announcement from Hammond at the end of his speech. From 2018, he said, the Autumn Statement will be abolished, with major fiscal changes taking place after the annual Budget. “No more twice-a-year tax changes,” he promised. Infrastructure is an industry that likes information about policy: the more regulatory certainty, the better. It now appears that industry may only get one chance each year to find out where the UK government stands on infrastructure.
For the energy sector, mentions of climate change policy by the UK government have been scant in 2016, and the Autumn Statement has added little further insight. The UK’s Department for Energy and Climate Change, one of the few global ministerial energy departments to put climate change front and centre, was absorbed in the summer into the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. That department is now named the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.
Last year a number of measures were brought in to try and improve the UK North Sea oil industry. This year, the energy industry was barely mentioned, save for a few confirmations of existing policy - the carbon floor price will remain capped until 2020, for example.
Perhaps the focus on innovation may benefit the increasing number of pilot technologies and projects that have emerged in 2016; in the marine sector, for instance, there is a burgeoning marine power industry along the UK’s coastlines that may be able to try and tap the capital that is being borrowed by the government for innovative infrastructure. But again, renewable energy was not a focus for this Statement.
So what did we find out?
The promised cash for infrastructure translates into a package of state investment allocations, the lion’s share of which focuses – in the Statement at least – on the transport and telecoms sectors. The biggest figure mentioned, £23 billion over five years, was assigned to “innovation and infrastructure.”
Hammond’s statement suggested that the UK Treasury will in the short term fund these new infrastructure investments with additional borrowing, raising the national debt.
“We don’t invest enough in research, development and innovation,” said Hammond. He said he wants the UK to be a “world leader” in 5G telecommunications, and announced a £1 billion investment in digital infrastructure. From April, he said the UK will introduce 100% business rates relief on new fibre optic infrastructure.
Housing was another area which was a major focus in the Statement. A housing white paper is forthcoming, he said, and a £2.3 billion housing infrastructure fund was announced, £1.4 billion of which is budgeted for 40,000 new homes. Hammond also said the government would relax restrictions to allow providers to build a wider range of housing types.
Additional funding was committed to the transport sector, with £220 million assigned to roads “traffic pinch points”, £450 million to digital signalling for railways, and £390 million investment in the low emission vehicles sector.
Hammond also promised more clarity on state plans for its Northern Powerhouse “in the coming weeks.”
What this statement says to the private sector, however, is that it will have to wait for its pipeline of investible deals.
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