Data Analysis: (Infrastructure) Euro 2016


In a nod to the UEFA Euro 2016 football (soccer, to our North American readers) tournament, which reaches its conclusion in Paris later this week, IJGlobal has sought out a European champion for infrastructure.

Based on IJGlobal data for the first six months of 2016, we compared the respective values of deals closed since 1 January, the average length of time from preferred bidder to financial close for any PPP project financings that closed in that period, and the number of active pipeline transactions for each country. Taking this data and applying a scoring system to the results, IJGlobal has identified the top European countries for infrastructure this year.

The dark horse in the competition was Lithuania, which won out against far more established markets due to its impressively speedy procurement process but just missed out on a top four finish. Other countries to do well but be knocked out at the quarter final stage were the Netherlands (strong pipeline), Spain (renewed financing activity) and Scotland (an active and efficient market).

Italy and France were both knocked out in the semi-final, with France winning the third-placed playoff thanks to strong scores in each metric. Which meant England and Germany met each other in our final.

At this point this London-based writer could be accused of wish fulfilment (given England’s dire performance in the real Euro 2016), but the data shows England just beating Germany to the title. The efficiency of German procurement and high activity levels made Germany a serious contender, but the size of England’s pipeline of deals and high volume of recently closed transactions puts it ahead of all other European countries.

England was victorious despite recently being the slowest European country at procuring PPPs. This could deter investors over the long-term, and it will be interesting to see whether it is still top of the pile in four years’ time.